Here is why the days and months ahead for Indian economy might not look easy

Much of 2020 and 2021 was spent by the world and its policymakers fighting off the economic impact of the COVID disruptions. With business cycles the world over still weak, the Ukraine-Russia crisis could not have struck at a worse moment, rekindling supply worries across the commodity space and heightening inflation fears that could lead to central banks hiking interest rates and hurting growth. Indeed, the US Fed has started its hiking cycle with its forecast changes indicating a higher inflation but a lower growth. US Fed chairman insists that the US economy is strong enough to digest back to back rate increases in 2022, a reduction in the balance sheet and still maintain growth momentum.

For India, the direct trade impact of the Ukraine-Russia crisis appears low. Exports to the region are just 1 percent and the imports from the region are 2 percent. But there are some concentration risks. Russia accounts for almost 90 percent of India’s sunflower oil requirement, nearly 17 percent of potash fertiliser and 60 percent of